TC VAUGHAN (23P) - CORAL SEA

2nd to 7th of April 2000

By Carl Smith
carls@ace-net.com.au


Map Animations:

Part 1
Part 2

Satellite Animations:

Demise of Vaughan
Tessi and Vaughan Satpic Animation.


TC VAUGHAN REPORT

On the 2nd of April 2000 at 1930 UTC, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), Pearl Harbor, issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert saying formation of a significant tropical cyclone (TC) was possible within 200 nautical miles (NM) either side of a line from 15.8S 161.4E to 13.0S 153.4E within the next 6 to 24 hours. Winds in the area were estimated to be 20 to 25 knots (KT). Metsat imagery at 021730 UTC indicated that a circulation center was near 15.3S 160.3E, and the system was moving NNW at 11 KT. Animated Infrared Satellite Imagery (AIRSI) depicted rapid development of the convection near a partially exposed Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC), and revealed that the system was small, 90 NM in areal extent. 200 MB analysis indicated the system was moving under a subtropical ridge. Minimum sea level pressure was estimated to be near 1002 MB.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre issued a High Seas Weather Warning (HSWW) saying at 022130UTC a Low with a central pressure (CP) of 999 hectopascals (hPa = millibars = MB) centred near 15.2 S 159.5 E moving WNW at 12 KT. Position fair. Within 100 NM on the southern semi-circle, maximum winds to 40 knots, increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas rising to very rough on a moderate swell.

The next HSWW said at 030000UTC a Low with a central pressure of 999 hPa centred near 15.1 S 159.0 E was moving WNW at 10 KT. Position fair. Within 100 NM on the southern semi-circle maximum winds to 40 knots, increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas rising to very rough on a moderate swell.

JTWC TC warning #1 was issued saying at 030000 UTC TC 23P was within 60 NM of 14.4S 159.5E moving 320 degrees (deg) at 12 KT. Maximum Sustained Winds (MSW) were 35 KT, with Gusts (G) to 45 KT. In the remarks, they said that at 030300 UTC it was near 14.1S 159.0E, W of Vanuatu and about 820 NM E of the Queensland coast. Animated Multi-Spectral Imagery (AMSI) depicted a small (90 NM in areal coverage) symmetric system with associated low level clouds moving in toward the center from the NW. The system had moved beneath the upper level ridge indicating improved outflow aloft. It was forecast to track initially NW before turning W as the system tracked Equatorward of a low/mid level ridge extending from SE Queensland to New Zealand. It was forecast to continue to intensify at a climatological rate as it continued to track beneath the upper level ridge.

The next BoM HSWW said at 030600 UTC a Low with a CP of 999 hPa was centred near 14.8 S 158.3 E moving WNW at 10 KT. Position poor. Within 100 NM in the southern semi-circle maximum winds to 40 KT, increasing to 45 KT in the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas rising to very rough on a moderate swell. The following HSWW said at 031200 UTC a Low with a CP of 999 hPa centred near 14.4 S 157.6 E moving WNW at 8 KT. Position poor. Within 100 NM in the southern semi-circle maximum winds to 40 KT, increasing to 45 KT in the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas rising to very rough on a moderate swell.

JTWC#2 said at 031200 UTC it was within 60 NM of 14.2S 157.3E moving 280 deg at 11 KT with MSW 35 KT with G to 45 KT. In the remarks they said that at 031500 it was near 14.1S 156.9E. AIRSI indicated it had intensified slightly during the last 6 hours with deep convection re-developing W to N of the LLCC. A 031058 UTC Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) pass depicted a partially exposed LLCC with isolated deep convection N of the LLCC. It is forecast to track generally W under the steering influence of a low to mid level High situated SW of New Caledonia, and has tracked under the subtropical ridge axis within a favourable environment and should intensify at a climatological rate.

It was named in the next BoM HSWW which said at 031800 UTC TC VAUGHAN with a CP of 995 hPa centred near 14.0 S 156.0 E and expected to move W at 9 KT. Position fair. Within 100 NM of the centre maximum winds averaging 40 KT, increasing to 47 KT in the next 24 hours. Seas rising to very rough on heavy swells.

The following HSWW said that at 040000 UTC TC VAUGHAN with a CP of 985 hPa was centred near 13.5 S 155.0 E and expected to move W at 10 KT. Position fair. Within 100 NM of the centre. Maximum winds averaging 50 KT, increasing to 55 KT in the next 24 hours. Seas very rough rising to high on heavy swells.

The BoM issued a TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN on Tuesday the 4th of April saying at 10 am EST [040000 UTC] TC VAUGHAN, Category (Cat) 2, was centred near 13.6 S 155.2 E, which is about 1100 km [595 NM] ENE of Cooktown. The cyclone is well out in the Coral Sea but is moving in a general westerly direction at 15 to 20 kilometres per hour (km/hr) [8 to 11 KT]. As gales are not expected on the far North Queensland coast within the next 48 hours, a Cyclone Watch is not required at this time. Maximum wind gusts near the centre of VAUGHAN are estimated at 130 km/hr [70 KT]. These winds are likely to increase during the next 24 hours as the cyclone slowly intensifies. A Storm Warning is being issued for ocean waters in the vicinity of the cyclone.

JTWC#3 said at 040000 UTC it was within 60 NM of 13.6S 155.0E moving 280 deg at 11 KT, with MSW 55 KT with G to 70 KT, radius of 50 KT winds 15 NM, radius of 35 KT winds 90 NM S semicircle 70 NM elsewhere. In the remarks they noted at 040300 UTC it was near 13.5S 154.5E, about 570 NM ENE of Cairns. AIRSI indicated it had intensified over the last 12 hours with deep convection organising around the LLCC. It was forecast to track generally W during the next 24 hours under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge situated to the S then take a more WSW track as the steering ridge moves E, and is forcast to intensify at slightly less than climatological rate within a favourable environment.

The next BoM HSWW said at at 040600 UTC TC VAUGHAN with a CP of 985 hPa was centred near 13.5 S 154.0 E and moving W at 10 KT. Position fair. Within 100nm of the centre maximum winds averaging 50 KT, increasing to 55 KT in the next 24 hours. Seas very rough rising to high on heavy swells.

The BoM issued TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1 (TCA#1) saying a Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities between Cape Grenville on eastern Cape York Peninsula and Port Douglas. At 5 pm EST [040700 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 2, was centred near 13.5 S 153.9 E, which is about 950 km [515 NM] ENE of Cooktown. The cyclone is moving in a general westerly direction at 15 to 20 km/hr [8 to 11 KT]. Highest wind gusts near the centre of VAUGHAN are estimated at 130 km/hr [70 KT]. These winds are likely to increase during the next 24 hours as the cyclone slowly intensifies. Gales are not expected on the coast and islands before Thursday. People between Cape Grenville and Port Douglas should consider action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next Advice at 11 pm EST [041300 UTC].

The next HSWW said at 041200 UTC TC VAUGHAN with a CP of 985 hPa was centred near 13.4 S 153.0 E and moving W at about 10 KT. Position poor. Within 100 NM of the centre clockwise rotating winds 35/45 KT with maximum winds 50 KT near the centre, increasing to 55 KT in the next 24 hours. Seas very rough rising to high on heavy swells.

BoM TCA#2 said that a Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities between Cape Grenville on eastern Cape York Peninsula and Port Douglas. At 11 pm EST [041300 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 2, was centred near 13.4 S 153.0 E, which is about 900 km [485 NM] ENE of Cooktown. The cyclone is moving in a westerly direction at about 15 km/hr [8 KT]. Highest wind gusts near the centre of VAUGHAN are estimated at 130 km/hr [70 KT]. These winds are expected to increase during the next 24 hours as the cyclone slowly intensifies. Gales are not expected on the coast and islands before Thursday. People between Cape Grenville and Port Douglas should consider action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next Advice at 5am EST [041900 UTC] Wednesday morning.

JTWC#3 said that at 041200 UTC 23P was within 90 NM of 13.2S 152.5E moving 280 deg at 11 KT, with MSW 45 KT G to 55 KT, radius of 35 KT winds 90 NM S semicircle 70 NM elsewhere. In the remarks they noted that at 041500 UTC it was near 13.2S 151.9E, about 205 NM SE of Discovery Bay, Papua New Guinea. AIRSI indicated it had previously weakened significantly, but had resumed convective activity and development over the past 6 hours. It is forecast to track W for the next 48 hours under the influence of the sub-tropical ridge to the S. It is expected to intensify slowly through 36 hours then more climatologically through the remainder of the period as it approaches the E coast of Australia.

The next BoM HSWW said at 041800 UTC TC VAUGHAN with a CP of 980 hPa was near 13.1 S 151.3 E and moving W at about 12 KT. Position poor. Within 100 NM of the centre clockwise rotating winds 35/45 KT with maximum winds 50/55 KT near the centre. Seas high on heavy swells.

BoM TCA#3 said a Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities between Cape Grenville on eastern Cape York Peninsula and Port Douglas. At 5 am EST on the 5th [041900 UTC], Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Cat 2, was centred near 13.1 S 151.3 E, which is about 700 km [380 NM] ENE of Cooktown. The cyclone is moving in a westerly direction at about 20 km/hr [11 KT]. Highest wind gusts near the centre of VAUGHAN are estimated at 140 km/hr [75 KT]. These winds are expected to increase during the next 24 hours as the cyclone slowly intensifies. Gales are not expected on the coast and islands before Thursday. People between Cape Grenville and Port Douglas should consider action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next Advice at 11am EST [050100 UTC] Wednesday morning.

The next BoM HSWW said TC VAUGHAN with a CP of 980 hPa has been re-located at 042200 UTC near 14 S 151 E and moving W at about 12 KT. Position good. Within 100nm of the centre clockwise rotating winds 35/45 KT with maximum winds 50/55 KT near the centre. Seas high on heavy swells.

BoM TCA#4 said the Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities has been extended from Cape Grenville on eastern Cape York Peninsula S to Cardwell. At 9am EST [042300 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 2, was centred near 14 S 151 E, which is about 640 km [345 NM] ENE of Cooktown. Vaughan has been re-positioned based on the latest satellite information. The cyclone is moving in a westerly direction at about 20 km/hr [11 KT]. Highest wind gusts near the centre of VAUGHAN are estimated at 140 km/hr [75 KT]. The cyclone is expected to intensify slowly during the next 24 hours. Gales are not expected on the coast and islands before Thursday. People between Cape Grenville and Cardwell should take prelimiary precautions and consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next Advice at 11am EST [050100 UTC].

The next HSWW said TC VAUGHAN with a CP of 980 hectopascals centred at 050000 UTC near 14.0 S 151.0 E and moving W at about 10 KT. Position fair. Within 100 NM of the centre on the northern side and 150 NM of the centre on the southern side, clockwise rotating winds 35/45 KT with maximum winds 50/55 KT near the centre. Seas high on heavy swells.

BoM TCA#5 said a Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between Lockhart River and Innisfail. A Cyclone WATCH extends from Innisfail south to Townsville. At 11am EST [050100 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 2, CP 980 hPa, was within 30 km [16 NM] of 14.1 S 150.8 E, which is about 620 km [335 NM] ENE of Cooktown, moving W at 20 km/hr [11 KT]. Maximum wind gusts 140 km/hr [75 KT] near the centre. The cyclone is expected to move in W to WSW direction towards the coast with gales developing between Lockhart river and Innisfail during Thursday afternoon. Vaughan is expected to slowly intensify during the next 24 hours. People between Lockhart River and Innisfail should commence preparations. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or local State Emergency Service. The next advice will be issued at 2 pm EST [050400 UTC].

JTWC#5 said at 050000 TC 23P was within 60 NM of 13.8S 151.0E moving 245 deg at 10 KT, with MSW 40 KT with G to 50 KT, radius of 35 KT winds 60 NM S semicircle 40 NM elsewhere. In the remarks they noted at 050300 it was near 14.0S 150.5E, about 350 NM ENE of Cairns. Current satellite intensity estimates of 35 and 45 KT. AIRSI indicates convection associated with it continues to cycle between periods of of intensification and weakening. Imagery shows that convection has has dissapated slightly over the last 6 hours. It was forecast to track WSW for 24 hours then take a more W track under the steering influence of the sub-tropical ridge to the S. The system is expected to intensify slowly as it approaches Cape York Peninsula.

BoM TCA#6 said a Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Innisfail. A Cyclone WATCH extends north to Lockhart River and south to Townsville. At 2pm EST [050400 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 2, CP 980 hPa, was centred within 30 km [16 NM] of 14.6 S 150.4 E, which is about 560 km ENE of Cooktown moving WSW at 20 km/hr. Destructive winds within 50 km [27 NM] of the centre. Maximum wind gusts 140 km/hr [75 KT] near the centre. The cyclone is expected to move in a WSW direction towards the coast with gales developing between Cape Melville and Innisfail during Thursday afternoon. Vaughan is expected to slowly intensify during the next 24 hours. People between Cape Melville and Innisfail should continue preparations. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available from your local government office or the State Emergency Service. The next advice will be issued at 5 pm EST [050700 UTC].

The next BoM HSWW said that TC VAUGHAN with a CP of 980 hPa centred at 050600 UTC near 14.7 S 150.1 E and moving SW at about 10 KT. Position fair. Within 100 NM of the centre on the northern side and 150 NM of the centre on the southern side, clockwise rotating winds 35/45 KT with maximum winds 50/55 KT near the centre. Seas high on heavy swells.

BoM TCA#7 said a Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Townsville. A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen. The Cyclone WATCH north to Lockhart River is cancelled. At 5pm EST [050700 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 2, CP 980 hPa, was centred within 30 km [16 NM] of 14.8 S 150.0 E, which is about 520 km [280 NM] ENE of Cooktown and 520 km [280 NM] NE of Innisfail, moving SW at 20 km/hr [11 KT]. Destructive winds within 50 km [27 NM] of the centre. Maximum wind gusts 140 km/hr [75 KT] near the centre. The cyclone is expected to move SW direction towards the coast with gales developing between Cape Melville and Townsville during Thursday afternoon and evening. VAUGHAN is expected to slowly intensify during the next 24 hours. People between Cape Melville and Townsville should continue preparations. If you are unsure what actions to take, information is available from your Local Government office or the State Emergency Service. The next Advice will be issued at 8pm EST [051000 UTC].

BoM TCA#8 said a Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Townsville. A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen. At 8pm EST [051000 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 2, CP 980 hPa, was centred within 30 km [16 NM] of 15.1 S 149.8 E, which is about 500 km [270 NM] ENE of Cooktown and 480 km [260 NM] NE of Innisfail, moving SW at 15 to 20 km/hr [8 to 11 KT]. Destructive winds within 50 km [27 NM] of the centre. Maximum wind gusts 140 km/hr [75 KT] near the centre. The cyclone is expected to move in a SW direction towards the coast with gales developing between Cape Melville and Townsville during Thursday afternoon and evening. VAUGHAN is expected to slowly intensify during the next 24 hours. People between Cape Melville and Townsville should continue preparations. If you are unsure what actions to take, information is available from your Local Government office or the State Emergency Service. The next Advice will be issued at 11pm EST [051300 UTC].

The next BoM HSWW said TC VAUGHAN with a CP of 980 hPa centred at 051200 UTC near 15.2 S 149.4 E and moving SW at about 10 KT. Position fair. Within 70 NM of the centre, clockwise rotating winds 35/45 KT with maximum winds 50/55 KT near the centre. Seas high on heavy swells.

BoM TCA#9 said a Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Townsville. A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen. At 11 pm EST [051300 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 2, CP 980 hPa, was centred within 30 km [16 NM] of 15.2 S 149.4 E, which is about 450 km [245 NM] E of Cooktown and 440 km [240 NM] NE of Innisfail, moving SW at 15 to 20 km/hr [8 to 11 KT]. Destructive winds within 50 km [27 NM] of the centre. Maximum wind gusts 140 km/hr [75 KT] near the centre . The cyclone is expected to move in a general SW direction towards the coast with gales developing between Cape Melville and Townsville during Thursday afternoon and evening. VAUGHAN is expected to slowly intensify during the next 24 hours. People between Cape Melville and Townsville should continue preparations. If you are unsure what actions to take, information is available from your Local Government office or the State Emergency Service. The next Advice will be issued at 2 am EST Thursday.

JTWC#6 said at 051200 UTC it was within 60 NM of 15.0S 149.8E moving 220 deg at 6 KT. MSW 35 KT, G to 45 KT. In the remarks they noted that at 051500 it was near 15.2S 149.5E. AIRSI and recent microwave imagery indicated convection had dissapated over the past 12 hours. It was forecast to trach WSW during the next 48 hours under the steering influence of the sub-tropical ridge to the SE. The system is expected to intensify slowly until the upper level environment becomes more favourable closer to landfall, which is expected at about 070600 UTC just N of Cairns.

BoM TCA#10 said a Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Townsville. A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen. At 2 am EST Thursday the 6th [051600 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 2, CP 980 hPa, was centred within 30 km [16 NM] of 15.2 S 148.8 E, which is about 380 km [205 NM] E of Cooktown and 400 km [215 NM] NE of Innisfail, moving WSW at 15 km/hr [8 KT]. Destructive winds within 50 km [27 NM] of the centre Maximum wind gusts 140 km/hr [75 KT] near the centre . The cyclone is expected to move in a WSW then SW direction towards the coast with gales developing between Cape Melville and Townsville during Thursday afternoon and evening. VAUGHAN is expected to slowly intensify during the next 24 hours. People between Cape Melville and Townsville should continue preparations. If you are unsure what actions to take, information is available from your Local Government office or the State Emergency Service. The next Advice will be issued at 5 am EST Thursday [051900 UTC].

The next BoM HSWW said TC VAUGHAN with a CP of 975 hPa centred at 051800 UTC near 15.2 S 148.0 E and moving WSW at about 10 KT. Position fair. Within 100 NM of the centre, clockwise rotating winds averaging 35/45 KT with maximum winds averaging 60 KT near the centre. Seas high on heavy swells.

BoM TCA#11 said a Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Townsville. A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen. At 5 am EST [051900 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 2, CP 975 hPa, was centred within 30 km [16 NM] of 15.2 S 148.0 E, which is about 300 km [160 NM] E of Cooktown and 400 km [215 NM] NE of Innisfail, moving WSW at 20 km/hr [11 KT]. Destructive winds within 50 km [27 NM] of the centre. Maximum wind gusts 150 km/hr [80 KT] near the centre, increasing to 170 km/hr [90 KT] during the day. The cyclone is expected to move in a WSW then SW direction towards the coast with gales developing between Cape Melville and Townsville during the afternoon and evening. VAUGHAN is expected to slowly intensify to a Cat 3 severe cyclone during the day. People between Cape Melville and Townsville should continue preparations. If you are unsure what actions to take, information is available from your Local Government office or the State Emergency Service. The next Advice will be issued at 8 am EST Thursday [052200 UTC].

TC VAUGHAN was intensifying, and rather rapidly as the next warning from the BoM shows.

TCA#12 said - Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the area Cape Melville to Lucinda are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VAUGHAN HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Lucinda. A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen. At 8 am EST [052200 UTC], Severe TC VAUGHAN, Cat 3, CP 970 hPa, was within 30 km [16 NM] of 15.3 S 147.5 E, about 250 km [135 NM] E of Cooktown and 260 km [140 NM] NE of Cairns moving WSW at 20 km/hr [11 KT]. Destructive winds within 50 km [27 NM] of the centre. Maximum wind gusts 170 km/hr [90 KT] near the centre. The cyclone is expected to move in a WSW direction with destructive wind gusts developing on the coast between Cape Melville and Lucinda later this afternoon. The very destructive core of Vaughan with wind gusts to 170 km/hr [90 KT] is expected to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cairns later this evening. Coastal residents between Cooktown and Innisfail are specifically warned of the dangerous storm surge as the cyclone nears the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to 2 metres [7 feet] above the normal tide with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. Flood rains are likely to develop along the coast and ranges between Cooktown and Bowen overnight. People between Cape Melville and Lucinda should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place and listen to the next advice. The next Advice will be issued at 11 am EST [060100 UTC].

Then TC VAUGHAN started to weaken significantly as the next BoM warning shows.

BoM TCA#13 said - Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the area Cape Melville to Lucinda are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal. A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Lucinda. A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen. At 11 am EST [060100 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 2, CP 980 hPa, was within 30 km [16 NM] of 15.3 S 147.3 E, about 220 km [120 NM] E of Cooktown and 250 km [135 NM] NE of Cairns, moving WSW at 20 km/hr [11 KT]. Destructive winds within 50 km [27 NM] of the centre Maximum wind gusts 140 km/hr [75 KT] near the centre. The cyclone intensity and position has been reassessed based on recent information. The cyclone is expected to move in a WSW direction with destructive wind gusts developing on the coast between Cape Melville and Lucinda later this afternoon. Coastal residents between Cooktown and Innisfail are specifically warned of the dangerous storm surge if the cyclone crosses the coast near this evening's high tide. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to 1.5 metres [5 feet] above the normal tide with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. Flood rains are likely to develop along the coast and ranges between Cooktown and Bowen overnight and preliminary flood warnings have been issued. People between Cape Melville and Lucinda should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place and listen to the next advice. The next Advice will be issued at 2 pm EST [060400 UTC].

The BoM also isued a HSWW saying TC VAUGHAN with a CP of 980 hPa centred at 060100 UTC near 15.3 S 147.3 E and moving WSW at about 10 KT. Position fair. Within 100nm of the centre. Clockwise rotating winds averaging 35/45 KT with maximum winds averaging 50/55 KT near the centre. Seas high on heavy swells.

JTWC#7 said at 060000 TC 23P was within 60 NM of 5.4S 147.4E moving 265 deg at 10 KT, MSW 40 KT, G to 50 KT, radius of 35 KT winds 70 NM S semicircle 50 NM elsewhere. In the remarks they noted at 060300 UTC it was near 15.5S 147.0E, about 133 NM NE of Cairns. A 052132 UTC TRMM pass depicted a broad LLCC with associated convection confined primarily to the SW. A 052323 UTC SSMI pass failed to discern a LLCC, but dids indicate a developing area of deep convection about 100 NM to the N of the current position. A low/mid level High situated over SE Australia is forecast to build NE during the next 24 hours as a mid-latitude trough moves off the SE coast. TC 23 P should begin tracking WSW during the next 12 hours, and is forecast to intensify slightly before moving onshore between Cairns and Rossville between the next 12 to 16 hours.

The dissapation of TC VAUGHAN was rather rapid by the next warning.

BoM TCA#14 said a Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Lockhart River and Lucinda. A Cyclone WATCH extends S to Bowen. The immediate threat from TC VAUGHAN has eased. At 2 pm EST [060400 UTC], TC VAUGHAN, Cat 1, CP 990 hPa, was within 30 km [16 NM] of 15.0 S 147.5 E, about 240 km [130 NM] ENE of Cooktown and 280 km [150 NM] NE of Cairns, and near stationary. Maximum wind gusts 110 km/hr [60 KT] near the centre. The cyclone has become near stationary as it reorganizes. VAUGHAN is expected to resume moving in a general W direction this evening. As the cyclone has weakened the risk of a significant storm surge has eased. However, tides could remain slightly higher than normal. Flood rains are likely to develop along the coast and ranges between Cooktown and Bowen overnight and preliminary flood warnings have been issued. People between Lockhart River and Lucinda should complete preparations and listen to the next advice at 5 pm EST [060700 UTC].

BoM TCA#15 said a Cyclone WARNING is no longer current. A Cyclone WATCH is being maintained between Lockhart River and Lucinda. TC VAUGHAN has weakened further during the past few hours. At 4 pm EST [060600 UTC], a tropical low, Ex TC VAUGHAN, was located about 240 km [130 NM] ENE of Cooktown, and near stationary. Gales are not expected on the coast and islands in the next 24 hours. Heavy rains may develop along the coast and ranges between Cooktown and Ingham overnight and preliminary flood warnings have been issued. People between Lockhart River and Lucinda should listen to the next advice at 11 pm EST [061300 UTC].

The BoM HSWW issued at 0634UTC said FINAL HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA. TC VAUGHAN has weakened into a tropical low, 998 hpa, located near 15.0S 147.5E. The low is near stationary. Position fair. Within 100 NM of the centre. Winds will no longer exceed 34 knots.

No further advices were issued by the BoM, as by 5pm EST [060700 UTC] it was clear there was no further threat, and the WATCH was cancelled.

TC VAUGHAN had undergone a very rapid intensification to severe Cat 3, followed by an equally rapid decline, the sudden demise being explained later by the BoM as being apparently due to the sudden intrusion of cool dry air.

JTWC#8 said at 061200 UTC TC 23 P was eithin 60 NM of 15.6S 146.0E, MSW 35 KT, G to 45 KT, was moving 150 deg at 8 KT and was dissapating as a significant TC over water. In the remarks they noted that at 061500 it was 15.7S 145.7E, about 81 NM N of Cairns. AIRSI depicts rapidly weakening deep convection. A 61120 UTC SSMI pass depicts extremely sparse weak deep convection with no clearly discernable LLCC. The SSMI pass in conjunction with synoptic data does show some evidence of the LLCC position.A synoptic report at Green Island with easterly flow at 15 KT indicates that the LLCC is NW of this station. The SSMI pass does show a possible LLCC in this area. The low-level ridge has now built NE into the N Coral Sea in response to the mid-latitude trough moving off the SE Australian coast. This will allow TC 23 P to continue tracking WSW through the forecast period, abd it should make landfall about 71 NM NNW of Cairns within the next 6 to 12 hours and dissapate by the 24 hour point.

JTWC#9 said at 070000 UTC it was within 60 NM of 16.4S 143.8E moving 250 deg at 9 KT, with MSW 35 KT, G to 35 KT, and was dissapating as a significant TC over land. In the remarks they noted that at 070300 UTC it was near 16.4S 143.4E, about 115 NM NW of Cairns. TC 23P moved onshore over 12 hours ago and weakened rapidly. Early animated imagery and microwave passes showed rapid dissapation of the convection as the system moved over the coast. Synoptic data indicates a broad, weak, LLCC over Cape York Peninsula. This is the final warning on this system.

END REPORT

NOTES:

Note 1: Tropical Cyclone Advices, Updates, and Shipping Warnings used as sources for meteorological information in this report were issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and are Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 1999, Bureau of Meteorology - http://www.bom.gov.au. BoM information is used unless otherwise noted.

Note 2: BoM Brisbane issues warnings to the Australian public using kilometers for distances, kilometers per hour for maximum gust wind speeds, hPa for central pressure, and times are CST, which is Australian Central Standard Time = UTC + 9.5 hours, or WST, which is Australian Western Standard Time = UTC + 8 hours. I have converted all these and added in them brackets, so changing

to nautical miles (nearest 5 NM), knots (nearest 5 KT), hPa = MB, and times are also given in UTC. Note 3: Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Pearl Harbour, tropical cyclone warnings were also used for extra meteorological information where indicated, and that material is copyright JTWC - http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.htm.

Maintained by Carl Smith.
carls@ace-net.com.au

Carl Smith 1999 - 2000. All maps, images, and other information on these Web pages is copyright, either by Carl Smith, or by the agencies that produce the satellite images and other weather related information, as indicated in each case. It is essential to obtain permission in writing from the copyright owner before reproducing any of the information on this website in any form whatsoever except for fair purposes of review as permitted under copyright legislation.

DISCLAIMER: Carl Smith is not responsible or liable in any way whatsoever for the manner in which any person, group, or business, chooses to use the information in this website or the consequences thereof. Whilst all due care is taken to ensure the accuracy of the information contained herein, there may be errors, and the information here is not necessarily up to date. All persons are reminded that it is essential to obtain current information from relevent authorities regarding current or potential cyclones.